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The 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2026
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Good morning,
Iran deal optimism. The Fed about to land. The BOJ holding under 0.75%. The BoC holding at 2.25%. Australian CPI softer than expected.
If you are a player trying to make sense of all of it, here is the short version. Four currency stories matter. The rest is background noise.
1. AUD is the strongest major right now
According to Daily Forex chief analyst Adam Lemon, the Australian dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open this week. Q1 CPI came in at 4.1% annually, with trimmed mean at 3.5%. Slightly softer than forecast, but still well above the RBA's 2 to 3% band.
Markets are now pricing a 25 basis point hike at the May RBA meeting. CBA and Westpac are calling for it. ANZ is the holdout.
For Australian players abroad, this is the one that matters most. A stronger AUD means every USD, EUR, GBP and JPY pay packet you receive buys you fewer Australian dollars when it lands.
If you are reading this from a club in Asia, Europe or the US and you have not had a conversation about your AUD exposure in the last six months, you are leaving money on the table.
I think we might be heading back to 0.75c Personal Opinion Only
2. USD/JPY is failing at the highs
USD/JPY has tried twice to break higher and failed both times. Daily Forex notes the pair has found support at 158.63, but the rejection at the upper end is the bigger story.
The BOJ held under 0.75% on Tuesday. But the signal coming out of Tokyo is that policy normalisation is on the table for as soon as June.
We had a conversation with a player last week, currently based in Asia, who summed it up better than any analyst could.
"I used to send home at 1.60. Now I'm like, what. 1.40."
That is not a chart. That is a real paycheck, getting smaller, every time it crosses a border.
A weakening USD/JPY plus a strengthening AUD means AUD/JPY is the cross to watch. Anyone playing in the J-League, or Japanese players overseas, this is the conversation to have right now.
3. EUR/USD is targeting 1.20
Daily Forex's signal team has EUR/USD targeting the 1.20 level on a risk-on breakout. The pair sat around 1.1686 going into the Fed.
For players at clubs in Germany, Italy, Spain, France or the Netherlands, a higher EUR/USD means your euro paycheck converts into more US dollars. If your endorsements are in USD or your savings are USD-denominated, this is a tailwind.
If your savings or property purchases are in AUD, the picture is more mixed because AUD is also strong.
The pair to actually watch is EUR/AUD, not EUR/USD.
4. GBP/USD has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders
The Daily Forex signal team is flagging an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on GBP/USD, which is technically a bullish setup.
Sterling has been the relative outperformer this month, helped by stickier UK inflation. The BOE meets Thursday with the Official Bank Rate at 3.75% and the vote split last time was 1-0-8 for hold.
For Premier League, Championship and SPL players, GBP has been holding up well. The risk is more on the AUD side. If sterling rallies and AUD also rallies on RBA hike expectations, GBP/AUD could stay range-bound, leaving British-paid Australian players in a wait-and-see position.
Why this matters for your contract
Here is the part that gets missed.
Currency markets do not care about your contract value. They care about central bank decisions, oil prices, and geopolitics.
The job of an athlete is to play.
The job of a currency strategy is to make sure that when you finish playing, the money you earned is still worth what you thought it was when you signed.
11 years in this business. Over a billion dollars in athlete transfers managed. The pattern is always the same.
The players who lose 10 to 20% of their contract value to currency are not the ones who tracked the market every day. They are the ones who never had a plan in the first place.
The player who said "I used to send home at 1.60, now I'm like, what, 1.40" is not unusual. He is the rule, not the exception.
This week is a good week to fix that.
