Good morning,
The Window Was Open for 24 Hours. Three Clients Jumped Through It.
Two days ago, USD/AUD briefly hit a 5-week high. No fanfare. No headlines. Just a quiet spike in the middle of a downtrend.
Three clients were ready. They acted.
Forty-eight hours later, the pair crashed back below 1.40 — a brutal 2.5% drop. Those three clients are now sitting on over $30,000 more than today's rates would have delivered.
The others? They're waiting. And what they're waiting into is one of the most consequential weeks for the Australian dollar in months.
USD/AUD Chart
I Called This Nearly Two Weeks Ago
Not to say I told you so. But the analysis that flagged Monday's opportunity is the same framework I use every week — watching for moments when a currency is fundamentally weak but briefly spikes against the trend. That's when we move.
Monday was textbook.
Here's What It Meant in Real Money
Client | Transfer | Extra Secured vs Today |
|---|---|---|
Client A | $1,000,000 USD | ~$25,000 |
Client B | $80,000 USD | ~$2,000 |
Client C | $60,000 forward contract | ~$1,500 |
Total | $30,000+ |
Same market. Same Monday. Completely different outcomes — based on one decision.
A note on Client C: they didn't have a transfer to make right now. They booked a forward contract, locking in Monday's rate for a future payment. Sometimes the smartest move isn't a spot transfer — it's securing today's spike for tomorrow's obligation.
💬 The Psychology Split
Group 1 — Acted Monday: Locked in 5-week best rates. Sleeping soundly. $30K+ ahead of where the market sits right now.
Group 2 — "Let's wait and see": Watched 2.5% evaporate in 48 hours. Now facing the question nobody wants to answer: bounce or free fall?
"2.5% in 48 hours. On a $1M transfer, that's $25,000 gone. Not from a bad decision — from no decision."
What Happens Next — My View
Here's the honest answer: the next 7 days are as high-stakes as it gets for AUD.
The RBA meets March 16–17, with the decision dropping Tuesday afternoon. The market consensus is a hold — the February hike needs time to flow through. But it's not that simple.
Bank of America broke from consensus yesterday, calling for a hike next week — citing the oil price shock from the Middle East conflict as "material upside inflation risk." The argument: above-target inflation plus a tight labour market means there's no compelling reason to delay.
The Ebury view (which I've been tracking) aligns with the hold camp but flags the complexity clearly:
The Middle East situation is a classic adverse supply shock — higher oil prices drag on growth and push inflation up simultaneously. That's the RBA's nightmare scenario.
Even with Australia being a net energy exporter, imported oil costs hit consumers directly and show up in CPI fast.
A May hike remains the base case for most economists, contingent on the March quarter CPI data due in late April.
The RBA currently has a cash rate of 3.85% after February's hike — their first increase since November 2023. Inflation is running at 3.8% headline and 3.4% trimmed mean. They are not done.
My read: Hold in March, hike in May. But the language on Tuesday will matter enormously — any hawkish tone in the statement will weigh on AUD immediately.
And that's before we get to the rest of the week.
🏦 Five Central Banks. Six Days. One Week That Could Move Everything.
This isn't just an RBA story. Between March 17–19, five of the world's major central banks are making decisions simultaneously.
Central Bank | Decision | Why It Matters for AUD |
|---|---|---|
RBA | March 17 | Directly drives AUD. Hold expected — but hawkish language could still hurt. |
US Federal Reserve | March 19 | USD direction. A hawkish hold keeps USD strong, adding more pressure on AUD. |
European Central Bank | March 18 | EUR cross-rates ripple across the board. |
Bank of England | March 19 | GBP/AUD flows — particularly relevant for UK-based athletes. |
Bank of Japan | March 19 | JPY moves can trigger broader risk sentiment shifts globally. |
Five decisions in six days. Currency markets will be volatile. Opportunities — and traps — will move fast.
Why Downtrends Still Create Good Days
Most people assume that if a currency is trending against you, you just have to wait it out. That's wrong.
Downtrends don't move in straight lines. Even bearish pairs give you "good days" — temporary spikes that reward whoever was positioned to act. The skill is recognising the level, having the plan ready, and executing when the moment arrives.
Monday's 5-week high was one of those moments. Look at that circle on the chart. That was the window. It didn't last long.
The framework is simple: watch for multi-week extremes within the broader trend. When they hit, don't overthink it.
The Next Window
I don't know exactly when the next spike comes. But I know what creates them — and six central bank decisions in one week will generate volatility in both directions.
The clients who acted Monday didn't get lucky. They had a plan, we identified the level together, and when it hit, they moved.
If you want to be positioned before the March 17–19 window opens — not scrambling after it closes — let's talk this week.
Chris Broadfoot | SportsFX International 11 years protecting professional athletes from currency risk Official Currency Partner — FIFPRO Asia/Oceania | PFA | RLPA
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See you next time,
Chris Broadfoot
Founder, The Currency Advantage I SportsFX International
