Last week had everything — a surprise peace deal, oil surging toward $100, diplomatic u-turns, and a US inflation report that could move the dollar this week. Here is the full picture.
How the week unfolded
Monday–Tuesday
Markets still jittery from the previous week's Middle East tensions. The AUD and NZD under pressure, USD holding firm as a safe haven.
Wednesday
Trump announces a two-week US-Iran ceasefire. Relief rally. The AUD jumped, oil dropped, the USD sold off. Markets breathed again — briefly.
Thursday
The optimism faded fast. Israel continued strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, effectively violating the truce. Intelligence confirmed the Strait of Hormuz was still blocked despite the announced reopening. Risk currencies gave back their gains.
Friday
Mixed signals again. Reports of Israel-Lebanon peace talks in Washington gave markets a brief lift — AUD touched 0.7092, NZD hit a two-week high of 0.5874. But Hezbollah rejected talks without a ceasefire, and Iran threatened to walk away from weekend negotiations in Islamabad. Both currencies retraced by morning.
Weekend ahead
Peace talks in Islamabad. Any breakdown could hit markets hard when they reopen Monday.
The bigger picture
The ceasefire gave markets hope, but the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively blocked. Around 800 vessels are trapped, and Iran is not moving them until it is satisfied with how the Israel situation plays out. Oil stayed volatile all week as a result — briefly threatening the $100 mark before pulling back.
In Australia, energy supply took another hit. Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility is running at just 50% capacity following last week's cyclone damage, and workers at a second major plant are threatening strike action. That is a meaningful domestic headwind on top of the global energy shock.
The ceasefire was not a resolution. It was a halftime whistle. Both sides are still on the pitch.
The US Federal Reserve is watching all of this carefully. Minutes from March's meeting showed the Fed is worried about inflation from energy prices, but equally worried about job losses if the conflict drags on. That is an uncomfortable position — the tools that fight inflation tend to hurt employment. Markets have largely priced out Fed rate hikes for now, but that could change quickly depending on tonight's US inflation data.
In Europe, the euro climbed back above 1.17 against the dollar. The European Central Bank is expected to keep raising rates — Europe imports most of its energy, so inflation is stickier there. That divergence from the Fed (hikes in Europe, potential cuts in the US) is currently supporting the euro.
What it means for athletes
A week of big swings with little net movement. The AUD ended higher than it started but spent most of the week below 0.70. If you have a transfer or salary conversion coming up, the volatility itself is the risk — rates moved 0.5–0.8% in a single session multiple times this week. On a $500k contract payment, that is $2,500–$4,000 swinging in an afternoon.
The weekend peace talks in Islamabad are the wildcard. A positive outcome could push the AUD through 0.71. A breakdown could send it back toward 0.68. Worth having a plan before Monday morning.
This week's calendar — April 13–18
Tuesday 14 April US PPI inflation data lands — producer prices expected at 1.2%, up from 0.7% last month. This is the pipeline version of inflation — what businesses are paying before it hits consumers. Also the first BOE Governor Bailey speech of the week, late Tuesday night AEST.
Wednesday 15 April ECB President Lagarde speaks early morning. Bailey speaks again Wednesday night. Two of the world's most influential central bankers in the same 24-hour window — any signal on rate paths will move EUR and GBP.
Thursday 16 April The big day. Australian employment data at 8:30am AEST — forecast is 17,900 new jobs, unemployment holding at 4.3%. A strong read could support the AUD. Also RBNZ Governor Breman speaks, UK GDP data, and US unemployment claims. A lot of moving parts for AUD, NZD and GBP pairs in one session.
Friday 17 April No major releases
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Chris Broadfoot — SportsFX International. Helping professional athletes manage currency risk for over 11 years.