Good morning,
This is an emergency edition of The Currency Advantage. What's unfolding in the Middle East right now will move currency markets significantly when they open Monday.
This is not a time to panic — but it is a time to pay attention. Because here's what most people miss: volatility cuts both ways. Yes, it creates risk. But for those who are prepared and act with a clear head, it also creates opportunities that don't exist in calm markets. Rates can spike sharply in your favour just as easily as against you — the difference is whether you're ready to move.
Here's what's happening, what history tells us, and what you should be thinking about right now.
By now you've seen the headlines. Iran's Supreme Leader killed in joint US-Israel strikes. Dubai International Airport hit. The UAE intercepting over 300 missiles and drones. Markets are about to get very interesting.
We've Been Here Before
Let me take you back through recent history. Every major geopolitical shock follows the same playbook:
February 2022 — Russia Invades Ukraine: USD/EUR spiked 5% in 48 hours. Safe haven flows sent USD soaring while emerging market currencies got hammered. Oil jumped 40% in two weeks.
October 2023 — Hamas Attacks Israel: Markets opened with a gap. USD/JPY moved 200 pips in the first hour. Gold jumped $60 an ounce overnight. Anyone holding EUR or GBP against USD lost serious money if they panicked.
March 2020 — COVID Lockdowns: The mother of all volatility events. AUD/USD fell 10% in 10 days. Safe haven currencies (USD, JPY, CHF) were the only shelter in the storm.
The Pattern Never Changes
When geopolitics explode, money runs to safety. Always. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil — any threat there sends shockwaves through currency markets.
What Happens Tomorrow
Fro previous event… Monday morning will be brutal. Oil will gap higher. USD will strengthen against most currencies except JPY and CHF. Emerging markets will get crushed.
What You Should Do
If you can, hold off on any payments Monday morning — let the dust settle. If rates spike in your favour, that's where a limit order paired with a forward contract can lock in gains you wouldn't normally see. Don't panic at wild swings — that's the market doing what markets do. And if you've got urgent transfers coming up, reach out now so we can plan your move before the chaos hits.
I'll be watching every tick. We've navigated these storms before, and we'll do it again.
Stay sharp, Chris
P.S. — Remember: volatility creates opportunity for those who keep their heads while others lose theirs.