I'll wait for a better rate.

Good morning,

This edition is a big one… but I think it's worthwhile.

TL;DR — If you're short on time:

Now, for the full story…

Five central banks are announcing rate decisions in the same week this month.

Let that sink in.

The Reserve Bank of Australia. The US Federal Reserve. The Bank of England. The European Central Bank. The Bank of Japan. All within 72 hours of each other. March 17 to 19.

I've been in foreign exchange for over 11 years. I can't remember the last time we had this kind of concentration. And it comes at a time when every single one of those central banks is dealing with a different problem, heading in a different direction, and the Australian dollar is doing something nobody expected.

Let me explain.

Here's what should be happening right now.

The Middle East is escalating. Coordinated strikes. Retaliatory attacks. Markets are nervous. In a normal environment, the Australian dollar sells off. It's a "risk" currency. When the world gets scared, money flows out of the AUD and into safe havens like the US dollar and the yen.

That's the textbook.

But right now? The textbook is wrong.

The AUD is climbing. Against the pound. Against the US dollar. Against the euro. Against the Kiwi. And it just hit a 30-year high against the Japanese yen.

The reason is simple: interest rates.

The RBA hiked to 3.85% last month. First increase in over two years. Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance of another hike in May to 4.10%. Australia's economy is running hot — strong spending, tight labour market, sticky inflation. The RBA is tightening when almost everyone else is holding or cutting.

That divergence is the engine behind everything.

GBP/AUD — 1.8857. Down over 12% from mid-2025 highs. Just broke below 1.90 for the first time since early 2023. The UK Budget just landed, the Bank of England decides rates on March 19th, and if they hold or cut while the RBA stays hawkish, the next level down could be 1.74.

USD/AUD — 1.4047. Down around 17% from early 2025 highs. The US labour market is cooling fast. Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls forecast dropped from 130K to 59K. The Fed decides on March 19th. Same week as the RBA.

EUR/AUD — 1.6446. Down around 12% from early 2025 highs. Eurozone inflation just came in at 1.7%. That gives the ECB room to ease. The ECB also decides on March 19th. Europe is sluggish. Australia is accelerating.

AUD/JPY — 111.84. The highest it's been since 1997. Nearly 30 years. The yen should be catching a safe-haven bid right now. It's not. The carry trade is too strong. The BOJ decides on March 19th too.

NZD/AUD — 0.8363. Down 12% over two and a half years and accelerating. The RBNZ has cut rates nine times since August 2024 to 2.25%. The RBA just hiked to 3.85%. That's a 160 basis point gap between two neighbours. The widest in years.

Every single pair. Same story. AUD stronger.

I keep coming back to this window because it's genuinely extraordinary.

Within three days:

On top of that, Australian employment data, New Zealand GDP, and UK labour market figures all land in the same window.

Five central banks. Three days. Plus major employment and growth data from three countries. If you've got exposure to any of these currencies, this window will move your money. The only question is which direction.

Now here's the part I really want to talk about.

I've had this conversation hundreds of times. Probably thousands. And it usually starts the same way.

"I think the rate will come back."

"I'll wait until it hits 2.00."

"Let's see what happens with the war first."

"The yen has to come back at some point."

I get it. Waiting feels like the smart move. It feels like you're being strategic. Like you're in control.

But here's what I've learned over 11 years in this business: waiting for the perfect rate is one of the most expensive decisions you can make. Because the perfect rate doesn't announce itself. It doesn't send you a notification. And by the time you realise it was there, it's gone.

I've watched it happen more times than I can count.

I've had clients waiting for GBP/AUD to hit that clean 2.00 level. It was right there. From October through January, the rate was flirting just above 2.00 for months. "It'll get there." "Just a little longer." It never quite touched. And then it started falling. 1.95. 1.92. 1.88. Now the clients who locked in at 2.00 when they had the chance aren't concerned at all. The ones who waited? They're fuming.

I've had clients earning in yen, watching AUD/JPY climb from 95 to 100 to 105 to 110, telling me it has to come back. It hasn't. It's at 111.84. A 30-year high. Every month of waiting cost them real money on every single transfer.

And now we've got an escalating conflict in the Middle East adding another layer of uncertainty. Coordinated strikes. Retaliatory attacks. Markets rattled. The instinct is to wait — "let's see how this plays out before I move any money." I understand that. But here's the thing: the AUD hasn't sold off like the textbooks say it should. Interest rates are proving to be a more powerful force than geopolitics right now. And nobody knows how long this conflict lasts or how far it escalates. Waiting for clarity on a war is waiting for something that might never come.

The pattern is always the same. The rate moves. The client waits. The rate moves more. The client waits more. And the gap between what they could have locked in and what they eventually get keeps growing.

I'm not saying you need to panic. I'm not saying you need to rush. And I'm definitely not saying I know exactly where rates are going next.

But I am saying this: certainty has value.

A forward contract doesn't give you the best rate. It gives you a known rate. And in a month where five central banks are deciding rates in three days, where geopolitics are escalating, where the AUD is defying every expectation — knowing what your money is worth is more valuable than hoping it'll be worth more later.

Let me put some numbers on it. Because this is what I do every day.

A player on a £500,000 contract who was waiting for GBP/AUD to touch 2.00 since January:

They waited for a round number that never arrived and ended up A$82,000 worse off than if they'd locked in at 2.05 when they had the chance. Meanwhile, the clients who booked forwards around that 2.00 level? They're sleeping easy.

A player on a $1,000,000 USD contract waiting to see what the Fed does:

An athlete in Japan earning ¥50,000,000 waiting for the yen to recover:

These aren't hypotheticals. These are real conversations I've had with real athletes.

Look, I'm not a financial advisor and I'm not telling anyone what to do with their money. But here's how I think about it:

If you've got transfers coming up in the next 1-3 months — take a serious look at where rates are right now and whether locking something in before March 17 makes sense. You don't have to lock in everything. Even securing a portion of your upcoming transfers gives you a foundation of certainty.

This week I booked a 6-month forward contract for a client at USD/AUD 1.40. Done. No more uncertainty. No more checking rates. No more wondering what the Fed will do on March 19th. They know exactly what their money is worth for the next six months. That's the power of acting when the opportunity is in front of you.

If you've been waiting for a rate that keeps moving away from you — the hardest thing in currency is accepting that the rate you wanted might not come back. But a rate you can get today is always better than a rate you hope for tomorrow.

If you're not sure what to do — that's completely fine. That's what I'm here for. A 15-minute conversation is usually all it takes to look at your specific situation, understand what you're exposed to, and figure out the best approach.

The easiest way to reach me:

📱 WhatsApp: +61-466 454 838
📅 Book a call: HERE

This month is going to move markets. Make sure you're on the right side of it.

Speak soon,

Chris Broadfoot
Founder, SportsFX Official Currency Partner — FIFPRO Asia/Oceania